Outlook

Interim Statement, 7 May 2024

Outlook for 2024

Following the first quarter result, Sampo has narrowed its 2024 outlook and now expects to deliver a Group combined ratio of 83–85 per cent. Previously, the outlook for the 2024 Group combined ratio was below 85 per cent, as per the stock exchange release published on 6 March 2024.

Sampo Group’s combined ratio is subject to volatility driven by, among other factors, seasonal weather patterns, large claims and prior year development. The net financial result will be significantly influenced by capital markets’ developments.

The major risks and uncertainties for the Group in the near-term

In its current day-to-day business activities Sampo Group is exposed to various risks and uncertainties, mainly through its major business units. Major risks affecting the Group companies’ profitability and its variation are market, credit, insurance and operational risks. At the Group level, sources of risks are the same, although they are not directly additive due to the effects of diversification.

Uncertainties in the form of major unforeseen events may have an immediate impact on the Group’s profitability. The identification of unforeseen events is easier than the estimation of their probabilities, timing, and potential outcomes. Macroeconomic and financial market developments affect Sampo Group primarily through the market risk exposures it carries via its insurance company investment portfolios and insurance liabilities and through strategic investments. Over time, adverse macroeconomic effects could also have an impact on Sampo’s operational business, for example by reducing economic growth or increasing claims costs.

Inflation has continued to fall in 2024 with euro-area headline inflation starting to approach the central bank target. The worst of the recent inflation surge seems to be over unless geopolitical events cause new shocks to energy prices. However, the continued strength of Europe’s labour market and rapid wage growth could keep price pressures elevated. This creates uncertainty on whether central banks will be keeping interest rates elevated longer than expected. This may lead to both a significant slowdown in economic growth and a deterioration in the debt service capacity of businesses, households and governments, raising the risk of abrupt asset repricing in financial markets. Furthermore, the potential escalation of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East represent a major economic risk. These developments are currently causing significant uncertainties in economic and capital market development. At the same time rapidly evolving hybrid threats create new challenges for states and businesses. There are also a number of widely identified macroeconomic, political and other sources of uncertainty which can, in various ways, affect the financial services industry in a negative manner.

Sampo Group’s insurance exposures in Russia or Ukraine are limited to certain Nordic industrial line clients, with coverage subject to war exclusions. On the asset side, Sampo has no material direct investments in Russia or Ukraine. Given the limited direct exposure, the biggest risk from the war in Ukraine to Sampo relates to the second order capital markets’ and macroeconomic effects outlined above.

Other sources of uncertainty are unforeseen structural changes in the business environment and already identified trends and potential wide-impact events. These external drivers may have a long-term impact on how Sampo Group’s business will be conducted. Examples of identified trends are demographic changes, sustainability issues, and technological developments in areas such as artificial intelligence and digitalisation including threats posed by cybercrime.

 

Release, 7 May 2024: Sampo Group’s results for January-March 2024internal link