Outlook

Financial statement release, 6 February 2025

Operating environment and assumptions

The acquisition of Topdanmark in 2024 completed Sampo’s transition into a fully integrated P&C insurance group. Sampo has an attractive operational footprint as the leader in the consolidated Nordic P&C insurance market and a leading operator in the growing digital UK P&C insurance market, positioning the Group to deliver both stability and growth.

Competitive dynamics remain rational across the Group’s areas of operation going into 2025, while demand for P&C insurance is stable despite limited economic growth. Sampo expects claims cost to continue to grow above the long-term trend over the year, driven by factors including rising repair costs for new cars and continued wage and service inflation. At Group level, underlying claims cost is expected to see a mid-single digit per cent increase in 2025, and the Group remains firmly committed to conservatively reflecting this in its pricing.

The strategic and operational investments made by Sampo over recent years have substantially strengthened its competitive position. The Group has unique digital capabilities across distribution, pricing, underwriting, and claims handling that enable it to deliver superior service and efficiency. Further, the integration of Topdanmark into the Group is expected to enable financial benefits through the delivery of scale benefits and synergies.

Outlook for 2025

The outlook for Sampo Group’s 2025 financial performance is:

• Group insurance revenue: EUR 8.7–9.0 billion, representing growth of 4–7 per cent year-on-year.

• Group underwriting result: EUR 1,350–1,450 million, representing growth of 3–10 per cent year-on-year.

The outlook for 2025 is consistent with Sampo’s 2024–2026 financial targets of delivering a combined ratio below 85 per cent and operating EPS growth of more than 7 per cent annually on average.

The outlook is subject to uncertainty related to occurrence and estimation of the cost of P&C claims, investment performance, foreign exchange rates, and competitive dynamics. Revenue forecasts, in particular, are subject to competitive conditions, which may change rapidly in some areas, such as the UK motor insurance market. The revenue and underwriting profit figures in the outlook are based on 31 December 2024 currency exchange rates.